“Hard-surface company failures may not be as rare as a lightning strike in the middle of the Holland Tunnel, but Clio Holdings isn’t the beginning of 2020’s big industry trend.” – This column, January-February 2020. Well, at least I got that right. The real business trends of 2020 – and 2021 – ended up being impossible to predict (unless you’re a fan of dystopian fiction¹). After traveling a rocky road, we’re in an industry that, strangely, is probably in better shape than two years ago. This is no time to take a breather, however, lest you be swallowed up by something rarely found at higher ground: quicksand. Before CGI special effects enabled the standard cataclysmic demise, quicksand used to be the go-to plot device in movies for getting rid of hapless innocents and heretofore invincible villains. First the confusion, then the panic, and finally the disappearance, after which a few forlorn bubbles reached the surface. You don’t see quicksand much in the movies these days. It’s rarer in real life, but that sinking sensation is still out there. It doesn’t take much to start feeling the ground getting soft. There’s plenty of talk about killer inflation, a coming slowdown (or recession or depression), and a lack of things returning to “normal.” What’s the answer? Oddly enough, the tips on what to do if you come across real, waterlogged, squelchy quicksand offer good guidance. Try taking a few steps back. 2021’s overall rate of 4.7% (including energy and food costs) is an eye-opener. That’s the highest annual hike since 1990, when many of you think that dinosaurs wandered the earth beyond the U.S. Senate chambers. However, take a good look at a chart like this and you’ll see inflation is a weird bouncing ball that’s lost a lot of its spring in the past decade. U.S. government policies have manipu- um, excuse me ... encouraged low rates, so raises aren’t an automatic FAIL sign popping up on the economy. Adjustments are necessary, but not necessarily a business killer. For reference, the annual inflation rate for 2009 came out to -.04%. Want to go back to that? Get as light as possible. The current rise in inflation and other factors will have some effect; but remember that we’re still adjusting from slamming the brakes on the economic locomotive worldwide. (Note to John Galt: It didn’t turn out like the book. Sorry about that.) The hard-surface industry, by a weird set of improbable circumstances, got a tremendous boost from the pandemic. Frankly, import and business data from late 2019 showed our trade likely heading for a small decline; we’ll take the new normal, thank you very much. However, this is no time to bloat. Keeping operations tight and trim is a business cliché, but it’s also the best of the best practices for weathering uncertain times and staying afloat. And, while a lot of business advisers offer the tough talk, remember that there’s a fine line between lean-and-mean and angry-and-hungry. Everybody in the shop needs to pay for groceries and gas. Don’t skimp on good employees. Use your resources. You’re not alone. The lockdown days finally appear to be in the past, so get out and mingle responsibly. The industry will hold plenty of in-person workshops and trade events in 2022. Find the time to get to one, as staying together reduces the chance of getting caught in a business bog … and you’ll have the help of others to get you out if you run into problems. The path’s still uncertain as we move farther into 2022. Always remain aware of where you stand.